Readers may recall that a few weeks ago this blog carried a piece on the pros and cons of the Phillies search for a number 5 hitter to protect Ryan Howard.

In the post, Kevin Roberts of the Courier-Post sports staff was quoted as bringing a different spin as to whether the Phillies had to go outside to find a number 5 or whether the number 5 spot was actually in good hands in-house.  Basically, Roberts’ opinion is that the protection thing is “a myth,” that when Howard was placed in the cleanup slot in the second half of the season and Pat Burrell batted after him, Howard’s production increased to the tune of 58 homers, 149 RBIs for the season and Burrell “hit .423 after opposing pitchers walked Howard, with a .769 slugging percentage.”

Now, Inquirer staff writer Todd Zolecki writes of his interview with 
statistician Bill James, author of The Bill James Handbook: Projections 2007, an annual publication advertised on BaseballInfoSolutions.com site.

When the Q & A turned to Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell and number 5 protection for Howard, James basically concurred with Roberts’ earlier comments such that it appears that the whole discussion of #5 and protection is starting to sound as bogus and as big a joke as the “Palestinian(sic)” demographics figures.

Zolecki reports the Q & A on Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell and number 5 protection as going this way;

Question: Much has been made in Philadelphia this off-season about who should hit behind Ryan Howard. The Phillies wanted Alfonso Soriano, but it looks like it could be Pat Burrell again. Is the importance of protection for a hitter overrated?

A: It is overrated. I know people talk about it, but there is no evidence anywhere that proves that having a more capable hitter behind a hitter in a lineup will dramatically improve that hitter’s performance… . I don’t know what kind of year Howard will have next year, but if I was projecting that on one hand he had Albert Pujols hitting behind him and on the other hand Corey Patterson is hitting behind him, I project his numbers to be the same either way.

Q: What do you think of Pat Burrell?

A: As a hitter I like him a lot. He’s an underrated hitter. I know he’s not Bobby Abreu. He’s not really much of a baserunner or a fielder or a thrower, but as a hitter, he changes the scoreboard. I like him.

And so, apparently, trading Burrell was not in the cards and may yet be the brightest move that the Phils didn’t make in the off-season.  Only time, and next season will tell.

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This entry was posted on Monday, December 18th, 2006 at 1:16 pm and is filed under All Time Baseball Highlights
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