Phillies: Team to Beat in NL East in 2007? (Part 2)
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In part 1, I spoke about pitching for all 4 teams. Stack the Phils pitching with anyone in the NL East and come out ahead with the possible exception of the bullpen where, on paper holes exist. While perhaps not a staff with marqee names, they have a great mix of experienced proven talent and young, talented arms. Hopefully Alfonseca will take some of the pressure off of Gordon and that they will make a viable team in terms of the closer spot. And hopefully Madson and one or more of the other young bullpen arms will step up to consistently hold a lead and to get the Phillies from the starter to the closer.
The Mets, conversely have a bit of a reverse problem. With Pedro Martinez out at least until all-star break, they are relying heavily on 41 year old Tom Glavine and on 3rd year pitcher John Maine to step up and carry the load. The rest of the Mets starters, including Orlando Hernandez who began last season with the Mets and ended it with Arizona and who’s ERA was all over the place, as well as much of their bullpen are questionable at best. Maine pitched well in the post season, but his career has been spotty. He’ll be depended on heavily to carry Met’s fortunes. As previously stated, THE big plus goes to the Mets is in the closer slot where Billy Wagner was superb and continues to be baseball’s most consistent closer.
Offensively, the Mets and Phillies have a degree of parity in terms of their sluggers; the Phils heavy hitters Ryan Howard, Chase Utley who had career years and Pat Burrell compare favorably with Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Carlos Delgado. Burrell however, as previously posted, must cut down his strikeouts – at least 80 to 100 and Howard should reduce his to at least Burrell’s 2006 level of 130 while building on his monster 58 HR, 149 RBI, .313 season.
The edge offensively will come down to how Phils production by players such as Shane Victorino, Aaron Rowand, new acquisition at 3rd base Wes Helms, shortstop Jimmy Rollins who showed fine power in 2006 with 25 HRs and 83 RBIs and their catching trio will match up with the Mets supporting players Moises Alou, Endy Chavez, Jose’ Reyes, Jose’ Valentin and catcher Paul LoDuca.
Here’s how I see things breaking down;
- Starting Pitching: Advantage - Phillies
Late Inning Relief: About Even
Closer: Advantage - Mets
Power Producers: Advantage - Phillies by virtue RBIs and BA
Supporting Cast: Edge to the Mets
Defense: About Even
Mets finish 2nd in NL East to the Phillies.
In future posts, this blog with look at the Atlanta Braves and the Florida Marlins.
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